We have two weather forecasters helping us. Scotty Savage, who is a badass avalanche forecaster from Big Sky, Montana, and Tom Halicki, who is Madaleine’s surrogate parent from Boulder. We are going to text them our weather observations from the Cirque, and they will do their best to get us info about major trends and changes.
I’ll forecast temps for 6000′ and you can adjust from there. I’ll forecast ridgetop winds at 9000′ (aviation products are available for that elevation) but that will be “free air” forecasts – you’ll have to get a feel for how this is affected by local terrain where you’re climbing, who knows if that will be worthwhile info or not. I’d hope that I can at least give you a heads up if any really windy days are coming.
Your weather obs will be really important once you get there so I can validate (or more likely invalidate!) my forecasts. Tough to get a grasp on what’s going on in the mountains on the Yukon/NWT border as there isn’t much data there. Changes and trends in the forecast should be pretty doable as there is a lot of information upstream (west, SW) of the Cirque.
Scotty says having two forecasts will help, in that we can correlate the Watson Lake forecast with what’s happening in the Cirque:
The Cirque will be a little wetter during some weather patterns and A LOT wetter during others. It will always be colder. Winds will vary a bit, but it will typically be windier in the Cirque.
Tom will be sending us Watson Lake weather from Environment Canada.
Our current forecast from Scotty Savage:
Weather looks really stable for the next 36 hrs or so, sunny to partly cloudy, and generally light variable winds. Should be a great flight in. Some weak systems scheduled to dirty up the large ridge of high pressure starting late Thurs or Fri, stay tuned. No huge system waiting to come on shore at this point but things can change in a big way in the gulf of AK.